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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2020-02-28T17:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2020-02-28T17:00Z
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2020-03-04T18:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2020-03-04T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2020-02-29T12:00Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 325 km/s
Longitude (deg): 04W
Latitude (deg): 06N
Half-angular width (deg): 25 deg

Notes: A partial halo CME, very weak on SOHO Lasco C2/C3, but clearer on Stereo A with an expected Earth directed component. It is forecast slightly slower than the background solar wind, so may not be clearly discernible in the solar wind parameters upon arrival at ACE/DSCVR.
Space weather advisor: MOSWOC

Lead Time: 24.00 hour(s)
Difference: 6.00 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2020-03-03T18:00Z

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If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

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